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Uganda’s Economic Recovery Depends on the Pandemic’s Severity

A market vendor wearing a mask taken by De Lovie. Photo Credit: LSE Blogs.

UGANDA, Kampala | Real Muloodi News | Economic experts argue that Uganda’s economic recovery hinges on the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional and global economies.

Like many other countries, the pandemic has already had a devastating impact Uganda’s economy. The latest statistics from the Ministry of Finance show that the economy grew just 3.3 per cent this financial year. The growth rate is just over half of the projected rate of 6.2 per cent. 

From the first COVID-19 case in March 2020 up to now, many businesses have closed and there has been an estimated loss of 100,193 formal jobs, making Uganda’s economic recovery harder.

Uganda is currently in the second phase of the pandemic, and Ministry of Health data shows COVID-19 cases continue to escalate. 

If new strains of the coronavirus are susceptible to vaccines, availability of vaccines and increased rates of vaccine uptake will be vital for the prospect of recovery in economic growth.

The Ministry of Finance has acknowledged “that the availability of COVID-19 vaccines and financing, as well as transformative domestic reforms will be essential to accelerated growth and resilience.” 

The Designate, Minister of State for Finance in charge of planning, Amos Lugoloobi, said the focus for the next financial year is “increased production and market access, supporting livelihoods through addressing poverty, and continued investment in growth enablers like infrastructure and skilling.” 

Additionally, the development of the USh 200 billion Parish Development Model, a strategy for organising and delivering public and private sector interventions for wealth creation and employment generation at the parish level, serves to strategize the government’s fight against poverty by focusing on the lowest economic planning unit. The strategy aims to increase household incomes in the process. Uganda has 10,594 parishes.

In June, the government presented the new USh 44.7 trillion fiscal budget for 2021-22. Uganda is optimistic that the economy will recover from the devastating impact of the upsurge of COVID-19 cases. The Ministry of Finance shows that the Gross Domestic Product per capita increased to USD 936 in 2020-21 from USD 916 in 2019-20.

The highly anticipated start of commercial oil production expects to boost Uganda’s economy once key oil agreements are signed.

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